STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF OPERATIONAL DEPLOYMENT OF FIRE AND RESCUE VEHICLES
Abstract
The application of experimental research planning methods showed that to obtain a multifactor mathematical model of operational deployment of fire and rescue vehicles, which will take into account the impact, in this case nonlinear, selected parameters (class of fire and rescue vehicles, level of operational calculation and season), and and the effects of interaction between them, it is advisable to conduct a multifactorial experiment in accordance with the plan 3x2x2. To implement the selected plan, it is enough to get 12 estimates of the average values of the time of operational deployment of the selected option and 12 values of the corresponding standard deviations. It is noted that this can be done based on the results of simulation physical modeling of the selected options for operational deployment on the training base, which exists in each rescue unit and is identical. The implementation of the selected plan provides good statistical and accurate characteristics of all regression coefficients. It is shown that the results of field experiments, which considered the implementation of operational deployments in two ways (option 1 "Supply of GPS-600 barrel through a working line on three sleeves with a diameter of 51 mm from the tanker" and option 2 trunk "B" with the laying of the main line on two hoses with a diameter of 77 mm and two working lines with the installation of a tanker on a fire hydrant ") coincided with the results of theoretical calculations and fit into confidence intervals calculated with a reliability of 0.95. This confirmed the reliability of the mathematical model of operational deployment of fire and rescue vehicles during the elimination of man-made emergencies by the first rescue unit. Statistical analysis of the obtained multifactor models of operational deployment of fire and rescue vehicles showed that the obtained variants of the model without simplification provide reliable results with a level of bilateral risk α = 0.05 and allow them to be used to determine operational and technical recommendations. for the duration of the personnel.
